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Wednesday, July 13, 2016

【政府採購】#8 - (PPP/PFI) - For Transportation Projects

【政府採購】#8 - (PPP/PFI) - For Transportation Projects
- Procedures for Dealing with Optimism Bias in Transport Planning

1/5 PPP/PFI Projects : WebTAG (Transport Appraisal Guidelines) : TAG unit M4 forecasting and uncertainty,
Guidance WebTAG: TAG unit M4 forecasting and uncertainty, November 2014
Uncertainty in Transport Model Forecasts in the Appraisal of Transport Projects 
SUPPLEMENTARY GREEN BOOK GUIDANCE  OPTIMISM BIAS 
The British Department for Transport - Procedures for Dealing with  Optimism Bias in Transport  Planning  Guidance Document 

TAG UNIT A5.3 .3 Rail Appraisal 
Appraisal in the Context of Housing Development  TAG Unit 3.16  IN DRAFT
Aligning Network Rail and train operators’ incentives to increase  efficiency
The Network Route Utilisation Strategy (Network RUS) 
Wider Impacts and Regeneration  TAG Unit 2.8  DRAFT  FOR CONSULTATION 
Progress in developing the design of the Birmingham Eastside  Extension in partnership with Birmingham City Council 
NATA Refresh:  Appraisal for a Sustainable  Transport System
The Traditional Urban Transportation Planning Process

Transport – guidance Transport analysis guidance: WebTAG (Complete Set)
<provides information on the role of transport modelling and appraisal, and how the transport appraisal process supports 
the development of investment decisions to support a business case>
Guidance WebTAG: TAG overview
Internal guidance on cost benefit analysis (CBA) in support of  safety-related investment decisions
Consultation response to Department for Transport  WebTAG consultation 

Project Evaluation Guidelines
JICA Guideline for Project Evaluation ~ Practical Methods for Project Evaluation ~ 

Australia
Guide to Project Evaluation — SET
Guide to Project Evaluation Part 2: Project Evaluation Methodology
Guide to Project Evaluation Part 3: Models and Procedures
Guide to Project Evaluation Part 4: Project Evaluation Data
Guide to Project Evaluation Part 5: Impact on National and Regional Economies
Guide to Project Evaluation Part 6: Distributional (Equity) Effects
Guide to Project Evaluation Part 7: Post-completion Evaluation
Guide to Project Evaluation Part 8: Examples
Cycling Aspects of Austroads Guides (2014)

Analyzing the Economic Impacts of Transportation Projects
Assessing economic impacts of large-scale transport infrastructure projects Case of Lyon-Turin corridor
 THE BROADER BENEFITS OF TRANSPORTATION INFRASTUCTURE 
The wider economic  impacts of transport  investments
Assessing Socioeconomic Impacts  of Transport Infrastructure Projects  in the Greater Mekong Subregion
Economic effects  of large-scale infrastructure projects


METROPOLITAN TRAVEL FORECASTING Current Practice and Future Direction
Procedures for Assessing Economic Development  Impacts from Transportation Investments
Estimating Soft Costs for  Major Public Transportation  Fixed Guideway Projects
TRAFFIC AND ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 
A Response by the Campaign to Protect Rural England to the Department for Transport's  Consultation 
file:///C:/Users/James/%E4%B8%8B%E8%BC%89/1029/Devolving_local_major_transport_schemes.pdf
Yeovil Western Corridor -  Major Scheme Business Case - Appraisal Specification Report

2/5 PPP/PFI Projects - How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects? The Case of Transportation
**How common and how large are cost overruns in transport infrastructure projects?
How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects? The Case of Transportation
Forecasts: uncertain, inaccurate and biased?
Explaining cost overruns in infrastructural projects: A new  framework with applications to Sweden 
Cost overruns in Dutch transportation infrastructure projects 
An empirical classification of  cost overrun in infrastructure  projects by using cluster  analysis
What Causes Cost Overrun in Transport Infrastructure Projects?
A SYSTEM DYNAMICS-BASED METHOD FOR  DEMAND FORECASTING IN INFRASTRUCTURE  PROJECTS - A CASE OF PPP PROJECTS
IMPROVED DECISION-AID METHODS AND TOOLS TO  SUPPORT EVALUATION OF INVESTMENT FOR TRANSPORT  AND ENERGY NETWORKS IN EUROPE
Guidelines for ex-ante and ex-post evaluation
Managing Uncertainty and Risk in Travel Forecasting: A White Paper
Cost overruns and demand shortfalls – deception or selection?
Toward a Typology: cost overrun causes framework  in infrastructure projects 
file:///C:/Users/James/%E4%B8%8B%E8%BC%89/1029/Toward_a_Typology_cost_overrun_causes_framework_in_infrastructure_projects-libre.pdf
Cost overruns in Large-Scale Transportation Infrastructure Projects:  Explanations and Their Theoretical Embeddedness 
Review of Lessons from  Completed PPP Projects  Financed by the EIB
Private sector participation in  urban rail Getting the structure right
Private Sector Participation in Light Rail/Light Metro Transit Initiatives
Bangkok, Thailand’s mass transit system
Traffic Demand Risk: The case of Bangkok’s Skytrain (BTS)
The Bangkok Skytrain - The transportation solution for Bangkok people?
BUILD-OPERATE-TRANSFER CHALLENGES IN ASIAN RAIL PROJECTS*
Sustainable Transport - Mass Transit Options

World Bank
Towards a Principal-Agent Based Typology  of Risks in Public-Private Partnerships 
Public Private Partnerships: Procurement interventions; financial viability and long term project control
Concept of a quantitative project selection model for PPP Projects
Project Management Models Selection
Infrastructure construction in change – what is the sensible path forward?
Sampension: PPP as a Way Forward for a Modern Welfare System
 The highs and lows of unbalanced bidding models
A fuzzy-based model for unbalanced bidding in construction 
Factors that affect bidding decisions / behaviour of construction companies anda description of 2 contemporary bidding models
Using Pareto Principle plus statistic methodology in  establishing a cost estimating model
Error and optimism bias in toll road traffic forecasts
Review of Traffic Forecasting Performance Toll Roads
Wilbur Smith Associates’  Traffic and Revenue Forecasts: Plenty of Room for Error
How accurate are toll road forecasts?
 Toll Roads: Big Trouble Down Under
Modelling toll roads - where have we gone wrong?
Expecting the Unexpected = THE CHALLENGES OF TRAFFIC FORECASTING


Publications dealing with errors in forecasting for rail transit  projects (Papers Collected by Univ. of Honolul, Traffic Engineering)
Underestimating costs in public works projects - error or lie?
Cost Underestimation in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie?
How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects? The Case of Transportation
Great Planning Disasters - How we should tackle complexity by taming wicked problems
Dilemmas in a General Theory  of Planning* 
Great Planning Disasters - Revisited 
The Use of Straw Man in the Economic Evaluation of Rail Transport Projects 
Deception in Dallas : Strategic Misrepresentation in Rail Transit Promotion and Evaluation
The Cost Escalation of Rail Projects: Using Previous Experience to Re-Evaluate the CalSpeed Estimates
Cost Overruns and Demand Shortfalls in Urban Rail and  Other Infrastructure 
RISK & UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS
Twenty-one sources of error and bias in transport project appraisal
A desirA desire named streetcar: Fantasy and fact in rail transit planning
Let’s make forecast and actual comparisons fair
Inaccuracy of traffic forecasts and cost estimates on  large transport projects
ERROR AND OPTIMISM BIAS IN TOLL ROAD TRAFFIC & REVENUE FORECASTS

Flyvbjerg, Bent.
Measuring Inaccuracy in Travel Demand Forecasting: Methodological Considerations Regarding Ramp Up and Sampling
Curbing optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation in planning: Reference class forecasting in practice
Optimism Bias in Transport Planning
Eliminating Bias through Reference Class Forecasting and Good Governance
METROPOLITAN TRAVEL FORECASTING Current Practice and Future Direction
**How common and how large are cost overruns in transport infrastructure projects?

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