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Saturday, February 6, 2016
A review of oil price trends and an outlook for oil prices to 2040
BRIEFING PAPER Number SNSG 02106, 14 January 2016 Oil price
s
US Energy Dep't - Spot Prices
(Crude Oil in Dollars per Barrel)
UK DECC - Energy Prices Statistics
WTRG Economics
Oil Prices
Published Thursday, January 14, 2016
This Commons briefing paper sets out a review of oil price trends and an outlook for oil prices to 2040.
Oil prices
This Commons briefing paper sets out a review of oil price trends and an outlook for oil prices to 2040.
Oil price trends
Oil prices peaked at almost $150 Dollars a barrel in July 2008 and fell sharply in the second half of 2008 as the global financial crisis hit.
Prices increased after that despite a fairly weak global economy. Political unrest across the Middle East and the revolt in Libya contributed to further price rises in early 2011. Subsequent prices in 2011 and 2012 were volatile; falling amid concerns about the world economy and going up as tension between Iran and the West increases.
Prices were less volatile in 2013 but the average was close to the near record levels seen in the previous two years. Some commentators have said that quantitative easing has contributed to the underlying price increases.
However since June 2014 Prices have fallen rapidly reaching around $65 per barrel by December 2014 Prices continued to fall during 2015. The latest Brent price is below $30 per barrel.[1] This is $120 below the peak.
Oil price outlook
The International Energy Agency’s Current Policiesprojections put the price of oil at almost $150 per barrel in 2040.
Oil price notes
This note provides annual, monthly and daily data for Brent crude oil prices.
Most oil prices are quoted in cash terms (not inflation adjusted) even in relatively long time series. This generally means that when prices are compared over time increases are overstated and price falls understated. This is much less of a problem over short periods, especially as the price of oil has an important impact on underlying inflation. However, when prices are being compared over a number of decades and direct comparisons are being made then a series using real prices gives a more meaningful picture. The daily prices in this note are given in cash terms, the monthly and annual data are presented in both real and cash terms.
The London Plan Chapter 8: Implementation, Monitoring and Review
The London Plan Chapter 8: Implementation, Monitoring and Review
Policy 8.1 Implementation
Guidance on Developing the Second Local Implementation Plans
Policy 6.5
Strategic, Planning decisions and LDF preparation
Policy 7.1 Lifetime neighbourhoods
Policy 7.16 Green Belt
London Plan chapter 8
Polihttps://goo.gl/lReRhocy 8.2 Planning obligations
The London Plan
- Portal
The London Plan
- Brief
The changing nature of the London Plan
THE LONDON PLAN SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY FOR GREATER LONDON
The London Plan - the Spatial Development Strategy for London
LONDON PLAN: RESEARCH BASE (Paul Watling for Greater London Assembly 0912)
Dealing with London's
Growth
How should London grow?
<Up or Out: A false choice Options for London’s growth>
growth from a transport perspective
chrome-extension://
Building Competences for Spatial Planners
Sustainable Design and Construction
Local Plan Supplementary Planning Document: Sustainable Design and Construction
Residential Design Guidance
Affordable housing
What is a Lifetime Neighbourhood?
Towards Lifetime Neighbourhoods: Designing sustainable communities for all A discussion paper
Lifetime Homes Design Guide
Lifetime Homes Families
London Mayor's Transport Strategy
London
Mayor's Transport Strategy
- Portal
Mayor’s Transport Strategy
Executive summary
MTS part one
- Vision
Part Two
- Context
chapter 4
(
Challenges, policies and proposals
)
chapter 5 pt1
(
Transport proposals
)
chapter 5 pt2
(
Proposals to encourage more cycling and walking
)
chapter 5 pt3
(Proposals to improve safety and security)
chapter 5 pt4
https://www.londo(Proposals to improve London’s environment)n.gov.uk/sites/
Improving the health of Londoners Transport action plan
Chapter 5, pt5（Proposals to reduce transport's contribution to reduce transport’s contribution to climate change and improve its resilience）
Chapter 5, pt6
（Proposals to manage the demand for travel)
Chapter 6
（
Expected outcomes of the strateg
y)
Part three
-
Delivery of the strategy (Chapter 7, 8 and 9)
Chapter 7
- Implementation plan
Chapter
8 -
Cost, resources and funding the strategy
Chapter
9 -
Monitoring and reporting
MTS annex A B glossary
Way to Go! Planning for better transport
WAY TO GO! Planning for better transport
(report)
Way to Go! Analysis of Responses
Response to 'Way to Go: Planning for better transport'
Way to Go! Analysis of Responses
-
Appendix 1 - Summaries of Stakeholder responses
Way to go! Planning for better transport - Response from Living Streets
Transport planning for healthier lifestyles A best practice guide
Paying for better transport Costing the ‘Way to Go’ manifesto
Mayor's Transport Strategy Integrated Impact Assessment: Scoping Report
Ultra Low Emission Zone Integrated Impact Assessment
Roads: charging in London
Transport Strategy: Integrated Impact Assessment
Mayor's Transport Strategy: Integrated Impact Assessment Post Adoption Statement
Draft Revised Mayor's Transport Strategy Integrated Impact Assessment: Non-Technical Summary
Draft Revised Mayor's Transport Strategy Integrated Impact Assessment: Appendix A: Scoping Report Responses from Statutory Consultees
Draft Revised Mayor's Transport Strategy Integrated Impact Assessment: Appendix B: Supporting Data for Baseline
Draft Revised Mayor's Transport Strategy Integrated Impact Assessment: Appendix C: Review of Policies, Plans, Programmes and Objectives
Draft Revised Mayor's Transport Strategy: Integrated Impact Assessment: Appendix D: Assessment Framework
Draft Revised Mayor's Transport Strategy Integrated Impact Assessment: Appendix E: Report on The Removal of the Western Extension Zone
Draft Revised Mayor's Transport Strategy Integrated Impact Assessment: Appendix F: Report on the Assessment of the Proposal to Defer LEZ Phase 3 from 2010 to 2012
Draft Revised Mayor's Transport Strategy Integrated Impact Assessment: Appendix G: Note on Equality Impact Assessment
Draft Revised Mayor's Transport Strategy Integrated Impact Assessment: Appendix H: Compliance with SEA Information Requirements
Draft Revised Mayor's Transport Strategy Integrated Impact Assessment: Appendix I: Glossary of Terms
Mayor's Transport Strategy Integrated Impact Assessment: Scoping Report
London CIty -
Transport
Draft Mayor’s Transport Strategy Statement of Intent
The
London
Mayor's Transport Strategy
The development of the strategy
The Mayor’s Transport Strategy – Public Consultation Draft Report March 2010
Roads: charging in London
The Mayor’s Transport Strategy: A consultation on the key policies and proposals
Draft Mayor’s Transport Strategy Statutory consultation with the public and stakeholders
- Appendices 1, 2 and 3 Annexes B and C
London Major's transport vision and details how to deliver the plan between now and 2031
-
Full Report
Mayor's transport strategy approval
London 2012: Leaving a Transport Legacy
Mayor's response to HS2 Hybrid Bill consultation
THE MAYOR’S VISION FOR CYCLING IN LONDON
DfT cycling delivery plan consultation response from the Mayor
Policy of London Mayor :
Better Streets, Better Places
The London Plan Chapter 8: Implementation, Monitoring and Review
Policy 8.1 Implementation
Guidance on Developing the Second Local Implementation Plans
Policy 6.5
Strategic, Planning decisions and LDF preparation
Policy 7.1 Lifetime neighbourhoods
Policy 7.16 Green Belt
London Plan chapter 8
Polihttps://goo.gl/lReRhocy 8.2 Planning obligations
The London Plan
- Portal
The London Plan
- Brief
The changing nature of the London Plan
THE LONDON PLAN SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY FOR GREATER LONDON
The London Plan - the Spatial Development Strategy for London
LONDON PLAN: RESEARCH BASE (Paul Watling for Greater London Assembly 0912)
Dealing with London's
Growth
How should London grow?
<Up or Out: A false choice Options for London’s growth>
growth from a transport perspective
chrome-extension://
Building Competences for Spatial Planners
Sustainable Design and Construction
Local Plan Supplementary Planning Document: Sustainable Design and Construction
Residential Design Guidance
Affordable housing
What is a Lifetime Neighbourhood?
Towards Lifetime Neighbourhoods: Designing sustainable communities for all A discussion paper
Lifetime Homes Design Guide
Lifetime Homes Families
Development of the London Mayor’s Transport Strategy
London CIty -
Transport
Draft Mayor’s Transport Strategy Statement of Intent
The
London
Mayor's Transport Strategy
The development of the strategy
The Mayor’s Transport Strategy – Public Consultation Draft Report March 2010
Roads: charging in London
The Mayor’s Transport Strategy: A consultation on the key policies and proposals
Draft Mayor’s Transport Strategy Statutory consultation with the public and stakeholders
- Appendices 1, 2 and 3 Annexes B and C
London Major's transport vision and details how to deliver the plan between now and 2031
-
Full Report
Mayor's transport strategy approval
London 2012: Leaving a Transport Legacy
Mayor's response to HS2 Hybrid Bill consultation
THE MAYOR’S VISION FOR CYCLING IN LONDON
DfT cycling delivery plan consultation response from the Mayor
Policy of London Mayor :
Better Streets, Better PlacesLondon Mayor's Transport Strategy Integrated Impact Assessment
Mayor's Transport Strategy Integrated Impact Assessment: Scoping Report
Ultra Low Emission Zone Integrated Impact Assessment
Roads: charging in London
Transport Strategy: Integrated Impact Assessment
Mayor's Transport Strategy: Integrated Impact Assessment Post Adoption Statement
Draft Revised Mayor's Transport Strategy Integrated Impact Assessment: Non-Technical Summary
Draft Revised Mayor's Transport Strategy Integrated Impact Assessment: Appendix A: Scoping Report Responses from Statutory Consultees
Draft Revised Mayor's Transport Strategy Integrated Impact Assessment: Appendix B: Supporting Data for Baseline
Draft Revised Mayor's Transport Strategy Integrated Impact Assessment: Appendix C: Review of Policies, Plans, Programmes and Objectives
Draft Revised Mayor's Transport Strategy: Integrated Impact Assessment: Appendix D: Assessment Framework
Draft Revised Mayor's Transport Strategy Integrated Impact Assessment: Appendix E: Report on The Removal of the Western Extension Zone
Draft Revised Mayor's Transport Strategy Integrated Impact Assessment: Appendix F: Report on the Assessment of the Proposal to Defer LEZ Phase 3 from 2010 to 2012
Draft Revised Mayor's Transport Strategy Integrated Impact Assessment: Appendix G: Note on Equality Impact Assessment
Draft Revised Mayor's Transport Strategy Integrated Impact Assessment: Appendix H: Compliance with SEA Information Requirements
Draft Revised Mayor's Transport Strategy Integrated Impact Assessment: Appendix I: Glossary of Terms
Mayor's Transport Strategy Integrated Impact Assessment: Scoping Report
Way to Go! Planning for better transport
Way to Go! Planning for better transport
WAY TO GO! Planning for better transport
(report)
Way to Go! Analysis of Responses
Response to 'Way to Go: Planning for better transport'
Way to Go! Analysis of Responses
-
Appendix 1 - Summaries of Stakeholder responses
Way to go! Planning for better transport - Response from Living Streets
Transport planning for healthier lifestyles A best practice guide
Paying for better transport Costing the ‘Way to Go’ manifesto
London Mayor's Transport Strategy (incl. Full Report)
London
Mayor's Transport Strategy
- Portal
Mayor’s Transport Strategy
Executive summary
MTS part one
- Vision
Part Two
- Context
chapter 4
(
Challenges, policies and proposals
)
chapter 5 pt1
(
Transport proposals
)
chapter 5 pt2
(
Proposals to encourage more cycling and walking
)
chapter 5 pt3
(Proposals to improve safety and security)
chapter 5 pt4
https://www.londo(Proposals to improve London’s environment)n.gov.uk/sites/
Improving the health of Londoners Transport action plan
Chapter 5, pt5（Proposals to reduce transport's contribution to reduce transport’s contribution to climate change and improve its resilience）
Chapter 5, pt6
（Proposals to manage the demand for travel)
Chapter 6
（
Expected outcomes of the strateg
y)
Part three
-
Delivery of the strategy (Chapter 7, 8 and 9)
Chapter 7
- Implementation plan
Chapter
8 -
Cost, resources and funding the strategy
Chapter
9 -
Monitoring and reporting
MTS annex A B glossary
Shared Space? Are you Kidding?
Poynton Regenerated
Eröffnung "Shared Space" Sonnenfelsplatz Graz
Traders share in success of Poynton shared space road scheme
Shared Space in Haren
Shared Space. The hype continues but it doesn't work in reality. Interactions on Kerkplein in Assen
Coventry: Shared Space (Road Junction)
Ashford Shared Space
Ashford's Shared Space - Accident waiting to happen
Housing Supplementary Planning Guidance | London City Hall -
Housing Supplementary Planning Guidance | London City Hall
https://goo.gl/t1MIoX
The current London Plan
https://www.london.gov.uk/what-we-do/planning/london-plan/current-london-plan
London Plan technical and research reports
https://www.london.gov.uk/what-we-do/planning/london-plan/london-plan-technical-and-research-reports
Annex Five: Specialist housing for older people
https://www.london.gov.uk/what-we-do/planning/london-plan/current-london-plan/london-plan-annexes/annex-five-specialist
THE LONDON STRATEGIC HOUSING LAND AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT 2013 Part of the evidence base for the Mayor’s London Plan
http://tinyurl.com/zta5qja
HOUSING SUPPLEMENTARY PLANNING GUIDANCE
http://tinyurl.com/jenrglt
Locality is the national network of ambitious and enterprising community-led organisations, working together to help neighbourhoods thrive
http://locality.org.uk/
Friday, February 5, 2016
Some Bike Infrastructure Is Worse Than None at All
Denver gave rise to the sharrow in the early 1990s, and now two researchers there offer a compelling case to put the lowly form of bike infrastructure to rest.
You’ve seen a sharrow painted on city streets: it’s that image of a cyclist below two arrows in the middle of a lane that—you guessed it—is meant to be shared by bikes and cars. The Federal Highway Administration gave sharrows its official blessing in 2009, and the symbol is now ubiquitous across urban America. It’s also arguably the least-loved nod to cycling, a low-cost way for cities to say they’re doing something about safety and street design without really doing much at all.
But far from giving cyclists a safer ride, or even doing nothing at all, sharrows might actually be doing some harm by tugging bikes into moving traffic. Some research has found they do reduce dooring (when the door of a parked car hits a cyclist). But only one study to date looked at whether or not sharrows had any impact on overall car-bike collisions—and that study found they could be increasing the risk of injury.
Recently civil engineering scholars Nicholas Ferenchak and Wesley Marshall
of the University of Colorado at Denver decided to take a closer look at the sharrow safety question. They gathered data on more than 2,000 blocks of Chicago in 2000 and 2010, cataloguing where sharrows were painted during this time, where bike lanes were installed, or where no cycling infrastructure emerged. Then they layered on statistics about bike commuting and street collisions.
The analysis revealed two clear messages. The first was that bike lanes were far more effective than sharrows when it came to encouraging more cyclists to a given block; sharrows, in turn, had only “slightly larger” increases in bike commuting than places where no infrastructure was built, as well as the smallest percent change, according to Ferenchak and Marshall. That’s a bad sign since cycling is known to show safety in numbers, likely because drivers become more aware of riders.
The more direct safety measure was equally discouraging. The number of injuries that occurred per 100 cyclists in a given year decreased the most in areas that installed bike lanes, nearly 42 percent. That’s not too surprising, but Ferenchak and Marshall also found that injuries in blocks with sharrows only declined about 20 percent—less of a decrease than occurred in Chicago blocks where no bike infrastructure was created at all, nearly 37 percent.
Just why sharrows increase injury risks is unclear; they might give riders a false sense of security, especially inexperienced ones. What is clear in the Vision Zero era is that truly prioritizing bike safety means building separated bike lanes. The results should be confirmed in other cities for good measure, but they certainly seem to suggest that sharrows are poor substitutes for bike lanes at best and “more dangerous than doing nothing” at worst, write Ferenchak and Marshall.
They conclude, in a working paper recently presented at TRB 2016, with some harsh words:
As sharrows do not provide designated space for bicyclists and do not enhance the overall bicycle network, all cities should (as many already have) begin to consider sharrows simply as signage as opposed to actual infrastructure. It is time that sharrows are exposed for what they really are, a cheap alternative that not only fails to solve a pressing safety issue, but actually makes the issue worse through a sense of false security.
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