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Saturday, August 6, 2016

尋找沉默的真相:蘇哈托之後,印尼的轉型正義

尋找沉默的真相:蘇哈托之後,印尼的轉型正義    

1975 - 1980 間, 奉派出任印尼雅加達; 到任後, 每遇當地華僑, 他們多
欲言又止, 對他們在當地的際遇又欲語還休, 覺得他們好像有些禁忌不可
談的歷史, 開始與印尼官員也不熟, 只好利用出差新加坡或香港時, 到
當地書店找澳洲或南洋大學出版有關印尼華人歷史的書藉, 邊看邊問,
慢慢就拚湊出一較完整的圖案; 華人與當地人間的愛恨情仇都與歷史糾結;
當荷蘭人殖民時期, 因荷蘭官員人數不足, 就採用以夷制夷的策略, 將社經
地位較高的華人運到荷蘭接受文官訓練, 返回印尼後, 擔任有實權的地方官吏,
但擔心華人尾大不掉, 定下了華人不得擁有土地的法律, 如此, 華人只得在都市
生存, 不擔任公職, 只得從事商業; 等到日本占領印尼, 因東南亞的華人全面抗日,
尤其在星馬一帶, 大肆屠殺華人, 在印尼亦是, 等日本戰敗, 印尼的原宗主國 - 
荷蘭已是一片廢墟, 無力返回重新執政, 在權力真空時期, 英國曾利用日本投降
時繳交的武器, 武裝了從戰俘營放出來的英國戰俘, 從東爪哇的大城 - 泗水
(Surabaya) 登陸, 後被經華僑資助當地人組成的民兵擊退; 而另一派人數較多
的擁荷華人一派, 卻積極設法想盡方法使荷蘭人回來, 這派華人中最有名的就是
國民政府大員外交部長 - 顧維斌 (後擔任海牙國際法庭法官), 他娶了印尼糖王,
一位僑領的女兒, 這也是後來印尼政府一直跟國民党搞不好關好的根由; 後來,
民族英雄 Soekarno 利用了印尼共產黨 (PKI - Partai Komunis Indonesia)的力量
 (己擁有總投票人數三分之一),登上了總統大位, 他亦設法將PKI 納入政治結構,
但他的政治路線漸偏向中國共產黨, 於是美國政府指令 CIA 策動陸軍中一些上校,
在 1965 年的某日發動政變, 一夜間, 謀殺了六位最高階將領, 另一位階級較低的戰備
司令 - Suharto 少將, 因探望住院的兒子而逃掉一劫, CIA 助其逃出 Jakarta, CIA
再以巨款收買駐紮在外的將領, 擁 Suharto 為首, 大軍殺回 Jakarta, 大肆屠殺,
姿意隨便扣上一項共產黨, 不經審判, 即被斬首 (經過見下紀錄片 **The Act of Killing)
當時的雅加達可說是血流成河, 城內華人區有條河, 當地人稱為 "Merak (Bloody Red)";
整個事件的死亡人數高達伍拾萬人; 我的瞭解, 以前只湊而成, 前後無法連貫, 直到
今日撞到下列第一篇政治評論, 再進一步瞭解, 才知道美國大哥恐懼共產黨, 什麼不人道
的手段都能使出來;

記住, 要看那幾部記錄片;

james

尋找沉默的真相:蘇哈托之後,印尼的轉型正義
http://global.udn.com/global_vision/story/8663/1763761-%E5%B0%8B%E6%89%BE%E6%B2%89%E9%BB%98%E7%9A%84%E7%9C%9F%E7%9B%B8%EF%BC%9A%E8%98%87%E5%93%88%E6%89%98%E4%B9%8B%E5%BE%8C%EF%BC%8C%E5%8D%B0%E5%B0%BC%E7%9A%84%E8%BD%89%E5%9E%8B%E6%AD%A3%E7%BE%A9
印尼1965:反共大屠殺的五十年後
http://chinaworker.info/hhk/2015/11/30/11470/
1965年印尼九三O事件
http://rokokuo.pixnet.net/blog/post/284641961-1965%E5%B9%B4%E5%8D%B0%E5%B0%BC%E4%B9%9D%E4%B8%89%EF%BC%AF%E4%BA%8B%E4%BB%B6
Timeline - A partial chronology of events
http://www.comingtojakarta.net/jakarta-chronology/
The Act of Killing
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Act_of_Killing
http://blog.udn.com/blackjack/11634367
**THE ACT OF KILLING, Documentary with Filmmaker Joshua Oppenheimer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHGbb64YxAk
**Jagal (Butcher) - The Act of Killing (full movie)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3tILiqotj7Y
What Indonesians really think about The Act of Killing
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2014/mar/05/act-of-killing-screening-in-indonesia
The Act of Killing: don't give an Oscar to this snuff movie
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/feb/23/act-of-killing-dont-give-oscar-snuff-movie-indonesia
The Look of Silence
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Look_of_Silence
http://europeanfilmawards.eu/en_EN/film/the-look-of-silence.3720
The Look of Silence: Act of Killing director's second film is as horrifically gripping as first - Venice film festival review
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2014/aug/27/the-look-of-silence-review-act-of-killing-venice-film-festival
The Look of Silence: Discussion with director Joshua Oppenheimer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9eJ7IKCDe-E
**The Look of Silence: Full Movie
http://watchmovie.ms/The-Look-of-Silence-online-full-movie-free-65-4812.html#
Eyes Wide Shut
http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2015/07/look-of-silence-joshua-oppenheimer-documentary/398672/
The Look of Silence and Indonesia’s Quest for Truth and Reconciliation
http://time.com/4383283/the-look-of-silence-indonesia-1965-1966-killings-massacre-pki/
**Fog Of War - Eleven Lessons From The Life Of Robert S. Mcnamara
https://archive.org/details/TheFogOfWarElevenLessonsFromTheLifeOfRobertS.Mcnamara
https://freedocumentaries.org/documentary/the-fog-of-war#watch-film
**Little Dieter Needs to Fly
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Dieter_Needs_to_Fly
http://picamov.com/play.php?movie=tt0145046
THE WEIRD GENIUS OF “THE ACT OF KILLING”
http://www.newyorker.com/culture/culture-desk/the-weird-genius-of-the-act-of-killing
A Gleam of Light in Asia
https://jagadees.wordpress.com/2014/04/21/a-gleam-of-light-in-asia/
An Island Lies Bleeding  Noam Chomsky
https://chomsky.info/19940705/

Why We Will Soon Miss the Cold War

Why We Will Soon Miss the Cold War 
http://www.theatlantic.com/past/politics/foreign/mearsh.htm
《歷史之終結與最後一人》(The End of History and the Last Man)
https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E7%BB%88%E7%BB%93%E5%8F%8A%E6%9C%80%E5%90%8E%E4%B9%8B%E4%BA%BA
Francis Fukuyama: The End of History and the Last Man
https://philosophynow.org/issues/106/The_End_of_History_and_the_Last_Man_by_Francis_Fukuyama
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZWJETpfbzM
Francis Fukuyama: "The Origins of the State: China and India"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gc_EZWUHBkg
Francis Fukuyama Democracy's Failure to Perform
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gF8CJSQf238
The End of History and the Last Man
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_End_of_History_and_the_Last_Man
The End of History?*  Francis Fukuyama**
http://www.wesjones.com/eoh.htm
End of history
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/End_of_history
http://www.ou.edu/uschina/gries/articles/IntPol/Fukuyama%20End%20of%20History.pdf
Bring back ideology: Fukuyama's 'end of history' 25 years on
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2014/mar/21/bring-back-ideology-fukuyama-end-history-25-years-on
美霸之後:靜待新亞洲秩序的中國
http://global.udn.com/global_vision/story/8663/1871155
有錢能使「鬼佬」推磨?中資入歐的盤算
http://global.udn.com/global_vision/story/8663/1718192-%E6%9C%89%E9%8C%A2%E8%83%BD%E4%BD%BF%E3%80%8C%E9%AC%BC%E4%BD%AC%E3%80%8D%E6%8E%A8%E7%A3%A8%EF%BC%9F%E4%B8%AD%E8%B3%87%E5%85%A5%E6%AD%90%E7%9A%84%E7%9B%A4%E7%AE%97
默哀廣島:核爆灰燼中被流失的反戰省思
http://global.udn.com/global_vision/story/8663/1875793-%E9%BB%98%E5%93%80%E5%BB%A3%E5%B3%B6%EF%BC%9A%E6%A0%B8%E7%88%86%E7%81%B0%E7%87%BC%E4%B8%AD%E8%A2%AB%E6%B5%81%E5%A4%B1%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%8D%E6%88%B0%E7%9C%81%E6%80%9D
英國溫拿複製機:E for 伊頓公學
http://global.udn.com/global_vision/story/8664/1873282
南海仲裁之後,北京還能牽制東協多久?
http://global.udn.com/global_vision/story/8663/1853240-%E5%8D%97%E6%B5%B7%E4%BB%B2%E8%A3%81%E4%B9%8B%E5%BE%8C%EF%BC%8C%E5%8C%97%E4%BA%AC%E9%82%84%E8%83%BD%E7%89%BD%E5%88%B6%E6%9D%B1%E5%8D%94%E5%A4%9A%E4%B9%85%EF%BC%9F
寬鬆貨幣:歡迎來到貧富差距最大的2016年
http://global.udn.com/global_vision/story/8663/1846507-%E5%AF%AC%E9%AC%86%E8%B2%A8%E5%B9%A3%EF%BC%9A%E6%AD%A1%E8%BF%8E%E4%BE%86%E5%88%B0%E8%B2%A7%E5%AF%8C%E5%B7%AE%E8%B7%9D%E6%9C%80%E5%A4%A7%E7%9A%842016%E5%B9%B4
撩動韓半島的THAAD:東亞再平衡?新冷戰?
http://global.udn.com/global_vision/story/8663/1846044-%E6%92%A9%E5%8B%95%E9%9F%93%E5%8D%8A%E5%B3%B6%E7%9A%84THAAD%EF%BC%9A%E6%9D%B1%E4%BA%9E%E5%86%8D%E5%B9%B3%E8%A1%A1%EF%BC%9F%E6%96%B0%E5%86%B7%E6%88%B0%EF%BC%9F
新時代的戰略謎局:擁抱新冷戰?還是迎接新混亂?
http://global.udn.com/global_vision/story/8663/1603236-%E6%96%B0%E6%99%82%E4%BB%A3%E7%9A%84%E6%88%B0%E7%95%A5%E8%AC%8E%E5%B1%80%EF%BC%9A%E6%93%81%E6%8A%B1%E6%96%B0%E5%86%B7%E6%88%B0%EF%BC%9F%E9%82%84%E6%98%AF%E8%BF%8E%E6%8E%A5%E6%96%B0%E6%B7%B7%E4%BA%82%EF%BC%9F
下一個「十年」:掙扎中的香港
http://global.udn.com/global_vision/story/8663/1621175-%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E5%80%8B%E3%80%8C%E5%8D%81%E5%B9%B4%E3%80%8D%EF%BC%9A%E6%8E%99%E6%89%8E%E4%B8%AD%E7%9A%84%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AF
中國不可說:創新創業,救經濟的「雙創法寶」?
http://global.udn.com/global_vision/story/8663/1655049-%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B%E4%B8%8D%E5%8F%AF%E8%AA%AA%EF%BC%9A%E5%89%B5%E6%96%B0%E5%89%B5%E6%A5%AD%EF%BC%8C%E6%95%91%E7%B6%93%E6%BF%9F%E7%9A%84%E3%80%8C%E9%9B%99%E5%89%B5%E6%B3%95%E5%AF%B6%E3%80%8D%EF%BC%9F
泰國民主的雨季:威信的符號、政變與權力風暴
http://global.udn.com/global_vision/story/8663/1731038-%E6%B3%B0%E5%9C%8B%E6%B0%91%E4%B8%BB%E7%9A%84%E9%9B%A8%E5%AD%A3%EF%BC%9A%E5%A8%81%E4%BF%A1%E7%9A%84%E7%AC%A6%E8%99%9F%E3%80%81%E6%94%BF%E8%AE%8A%E8%88%87%E6%AC%8A%E5%8A%9B%E9%A2%A8%E6%9A%B4
朴槿惠的雞肋困擾:韓國如何以「創意經濟」突圍?
http://global.udn.com/global_vision/story/8663/1823915-%E6%9C%B4%E6%A7%BF%E6%83%A0%E7%9A%84%E9%9B%9E%E8%82%8B%E5%9B%B0%E6%93%BE%EF%BC%9A%E9%9F%93%E5%9C%8B%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E4%BB%A5%E3%80%8C%E5%89%B5%E6%84%8F%E7%B6%93%E6%BF%9F%E3%80%8D%E7%AA%81%E5%9C%8D%EF%BC%9F
撩動韓半島的THAAD:東亞再平衡?新冷戰?
http://global.udn.com/global_vision/story/8663/1846044-%E6%92%A9%E5%8B%95%E9%9F%93%E5%8D%8A%E5%B3%B6%E7%9A%84THAAD%EF%BC%9A%E6%9D%B1%E4%BA%9E%E5%86%8D%E5%B9%B3%E8%A1%A1%EF%BC%9F%E6%96%B0%E5%86%B7%E6%88%B0%EF%BC%9F
叮咚,巫婆來了!細數英國首相梅伊的出包往事
http://global.udn.com/global_vision/story/8664/1855557
The Price of Love
https://vimeo.com/125339496
破除共和黨流言:歐巴馬執政八年到底做了什麼?
http://global.udn.com/global_vision/story/8663/1866112

俏皮話

俏皮話 

1. 上了賊船,就跟賊走;
2. 女大十八變,越變越隨便;
3. 傳銷就是兔子專吃窩邊草;
4. 走自己的路,和愛情兵分兩路;
5. 知道你過的不好,我就安心了;
6. 距離產生的不是美, 是小三;
7. 世上只有媽媽好,爸爸也不錯;
8. 女人可以風流,但不能人流;
9. 是狼就煉好牙,是羊就煉好腿;
10.男人的實力就是你兜裏的人民幣;

11.都說姐漂亮,其實都是妝出來的;
12.小鳥雖小,可它玩的卻是整個天空;
13.腦袋空不要緊,關鍵是不要進水;
14.人要臉,樹要皮,電線桿子要水泥;
15.曾經的海枯石爛,抵不 過好聚好散;
16.寧可去碰壁,也不要在家裏面壁;
17.沒有不變的承諾,只有說不完的謊言;
18.睡覺是測試老師教學水平最好的工具;
19.別扯那麽遠,誰確定你能活到那一天;
20.累嗎?累就對了,舒服是留給死人的;

21.學學人家姜太公,釣的都是尋死的魚;
22.古時一劍闖蕩天下,如今一賤放蕩世界;
23.誰對我的感情能像對人民幣那樣堅定啊!
24.自從買了保險,過馬路都不用看紅綠燈了;
25.一早醒來我以為我長大了,原來是被子蓋橫了;
26.我們始終都在練習微笑,終於變成不敢哭的人;
27.服裝設計師的目的是: 把女人搞怪,把男人搞窮;
28.我不介意你騙我,我介意的是你的謊話騙不了我;
29.你說你會等我回來,你是等了,還找了一個人一起等;
30.結婚證和衛生許可證的唯一區別是,它不掛在墻上;

31.在你頭上拉屎的未必是敵人,也可能是你樓上鄰居;
32.世界是我們的,也是兒子們的,可最終是那幫孫子們的;
33.活著浪費空氣,死了浪費土地,半死不活浪費人民幣;
34.牛肉面裏沒牛肉不要抱怨,老婆餅裏面不也沒有老婆嗎?
35.不經歷星期一上午的崩潰,就不知道星期五下午的可貴;
36.小學生一隊一隊,中學是一堆一堆 ,大學生是一對一對;
37.自從人曬黑了,臉色好看了,牙齒變白了,喝酒都不臉紅了;
38.人生就像迷宮,我們用上半生找尋入口,用下半生找尋出口;
39.如果你愛上了別人請別告訴我,我沒有你想象的那麽勇敢;
40.壞人做一件好事叫回頭是岸,好人做一件壞事叫臨天亮尿床
41.哄領導開心就做做假,哄群眾開心就做做秀;哄自己開心就做做夢;
42.結婚就是“明知山有虎,偏向虎山行”,可是‘不入虎穴,焉得虎子’;
43.最快變成哲學家的是老公,最快變成經濟學家的是老婆,最快變成戰略家的是丈母娘。

Thursday, August 4, 2016

The Sound Of Silence - Dana Winner - Lyrics

The Sound Of Silence - Dana Winner - Lyrics
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4tvpS-WHck&list=RDi4tvpS-WHck#t=27

【名曲名家】 katyusha (kazachok) 蘇俄名謠 - 不知名小野花

【名曲名家】 katyusha (kazachok) 蘇俄名謠 - 不知名小野花  

kazachok ( katyusha)
Red Army Choir Katusha
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLg83QMmlGs&list=RDMLg83QMmlGs#t=8
Kazachok from Russia - Awesome Gimnazija Kranj Symphony Orchestra Medely
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifzk1yQkFfY&list=RDifzk1yQkFfY#t=6
Red Army Choir's Katyusha - Russian and English Lyrics (蘇俄紅軍男聲合唱團)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbDmNHUyFSc&list=RDPbDmNHUyFSc#t=38

Red Russian Army Choir - Katjusha

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHlq_P5CI18&index=2&list=RD09Rf2KqA7a4
Katyusha-Varvara / Катюша-Варвара
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IO5YpgqH6eA&list=RDIO5YpgqH6eA#t=6
Katyusha dance War Army solo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YoB4Vkvceo0&list=RDYoB4Vkvceo0#t=33

【名曲名家】Kalinka 蘇俄名謠 - 雪球花

【名曲名家】Kalinka 蘇俄名謠 - 雪球花    

Red Russian Army Choir - Kalinka
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09Rf2KqA7a4&list=RD09Rf2KqA7a4#t=8
Alexandrov Red Army Choir - Kalinka
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOfvkmJ7AR0&list=RDlOfvkmJ7AR0#t=14

The Red Army Choir - "Kalinka"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XxK2JJisEc&list=RD_XxK2JJisEc#t=6
The Red Army Choir - "Kalinka"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7UIawZA3LY&list=RDo7UIawZA3LY#t=17
kalinka dance
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PwS50EDcMGE&list=RDPwS50EDcMGE#t=8
Beryozka Dance Troupe "Beryozka - Kalinka"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TM3e3FDU4QM&list=RDTM3e3FDU4QM#t=5
Kakalin.......wmv
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7nMAfCgPD8&list=RDA7nMAfCgPD8#t=38
RED RUSSIAN ARMY CHOIR "Kalinka"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_A7Hu0uKNw&list=RDC_A7Hu0uKNw#t=2
Red Army Choir: Kalinka
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJ9q7N5e25c&list=RDVJ9q7N5e25c#t=4
Red Army Choir - Kalinka (SUBTITLES)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NA-QVFJVut8&list=RDNA-QVFJVut8#t=16
Aleksandrov Red Army Choir on Eurovision Song Contest 2009, Moscow [HQ]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FCZNfeWGTkQ&list=RDFCZNfeWGTkQ#t=5
Kalinka - Russian Popular Dance. Kalinka
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzYiQuChDjs&list=RDXzYiQuChDjs#t=4
Ms. Helene Fischer Russian Medley with Kalinka 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=am3GPT6Uqqo&list=RDam3GPT6Uqqo#t=3
Russian Red Army Choir - The Birch Tree
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKC4M0dQ8AE&list=RDSKC4M0dQ8AE#t=9
Russian Red Army Choir - Song of the Volga Boatmen (1965)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8WD0WVL-HjE&index=2&list=RDSKC4M0dQ8AE

RED ARMY CHOIR - KALINKA (10 HOURS) HQ SOUND QUALITY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iqH69uVwAg&list=RD_iqH69uVwAg#t=8

【名曲名家】 Bedřich Smetana : "Die Moldau" 我的祖國 - 莫爾道河

【名曲名家】  Bedřich Smetana : "Die Moldau" 我的祖國 - 莫爾道河

[HD] Bedřich Smetana : "Die Moldau" / Karajan / Vienna Philharmonic
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDjE6H5HqWk&list=RDXDjE6H5HqWk#t=15
Smetana - Moldau with Piano
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JquHogaon7s&list=RDJquHogaon7s#t=49
Smetana: Ma vlast (My Fatherland) - No. 2. Vltava (Moldau), Conductor: Rafael Kubelík
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IoSVGd6EPLE&list=RDIoSVGd6EPLE#t=19
Bedřich Smetana: Vltava (Moldau), composer's piano duet version
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ozk-GYEfCR0&list=RDOzk-GYEfCR0#t=14
Smetana: Vltava (The Moldau) - Stunning Performance  
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6kqu2mk-Kw&list=RDl6kqu2mk-Kw#t=7
A. Dvořák: Slavonic Dances (standing ovations) - amazing performance!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HJnh5MHgThg&list=RDHJnh5MHgThg#t=57
Smetana: Má Vlast: Vltava (Die Moldau) - gesamt
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5jCAelYsR0&list=RDW5jCAelYsR0#t=7
Bedrich Smetana: Die Moldau / Transcription: Iva Slancova
​ - Pipe Organ​
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zG2BulGNZlM&list=RDzG2BulGNZlM#t=47
B. Smetana: Vltava (Moldau) - Valérie Milot, harp
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TnYCW8eWqQo&list=RDTnYCW8eWqQo#t=13

The Best of Smetana
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7kJp6suBMw&list=RDP7kJp6suBMw#t=233
Kazachok from Russia - Awesome Gimnazija Kranj Symphony Orchestra Medely
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifzk1yQkFfY&list=RDifzk1yQkFfY#t=6
My Leafless Maple - Клен ты мой опавший, клен заледенелый
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5o1VWdLKyn0&list=RD5o1VWdLKyn0#t=0

葉家興/髮夾彎也有兩種.

葉家興/髮夾彎也有兩種.

ETtoday  > 論壇  > 雲論 2016年08月3日 10:20

葉家興/髮夾彎也有兩種.

髮夾彎(Hairpin turn)最近在媒體能見度頗高。如果在慧科資料庫中,搜尋台灣媒體報導出現「髮夾彎」的次數,發現2013、2014、2015年分別才出現47、52、68則新聞,而今年才過了7個多月,出現新聞已經高達281則。而且,過去幾年多半是在交通、公路的新聞裡出現「髮夾彎」,指的是道路路線如同髮夾的原始含意。而今年卻往往出現在政治新聞裡,用來描述新政府執政後推行的政策與說法,與在野時的主張落差太大。

不過,本文所說的「髮夾彎有兩種」,可不是道路交通一種、政黨政策一種。而是就政府決策而言,為了求取多數人民之福祉,變所當變本來就有其必要。然而這種髮夾彎,是來自謹慎謙卑的調整,還是來自傲慢投機的權謀,人們必須放大眼睛,仔細分辨。

謹慎謙卑的調整,是基於「當事實改變,我也會改變想法」的成長型思維,也是成功決策的必要條件。例如,榮獲《紐約時報》編輯選書、《經濟學人》雜誌2015年度最佳圖書的《超級預測:洞悉思考的藝術與科學,在不確定的世界預見未來優勢》(Superforecasting:
The Art and Science of Prediction),作者賓州大學華頓商學院教授泰洛克(Philip E. Tetlock)就對「一貫的反覆無常」的經濟學家凱因斯高度讚揚。

凱因斯除了在學術上為走出經濟大蕭條而聞名以外,也是成功的投資者。1920年,他的外幣預測結果錯得離譜,財富幾乎付之一炬。後來他站穩腳步,並在1920年代,為自己和其他人賺了一大筆錢。但1929股市崩盤,他再次損失慘重。然而其後他修正投資觀念,東山再起,1946年去世時,凱因斯又是位超級富豪。

關鍵就在於「凱因斯永遠準備好,只要情況適當,不但要反駁他人,也要隨時反駁自己。」並且,他對立場反轉完全不覺得自責,相反他用此來指責那些頭腦僵化的人。他的行事風格是一貫的反覆無常,原因是他認知現實是無限複雜,沒有一成不變的事務。承認失敗並從中學習到經驗再出發,乃是成功的基礎。

凱因斯並不像宿命論者一樣篤信事情注定要發生(或不發生)。他以積極的開放心胸、理性的謙遜作為決策判斷的依據:嘗試、失敗、分析、調整、再嘗試。凱因斯的「髮夾彎」務實主義,讓他不但在學理上提出走出經濟大蕭條的總體經濟政策,也在私人投資上靈活調整,從而能夠兩次破產而終成巨富。

泰洛克教授在《超級預測》書中,詳細分析了兩個長期的研究計劃,為何看似普通人的「超級預言家」,在政治經濟國防等事務的預測成績斐然,遠勝過政府高薪聘請的專家?他發現,最重要的特質就是「永遠的β版」,就像是電腦程式最終版設發行前的測試版,會不斷地試用、除錯、分析,無止盡地改善。一個人能否成為「超級預測員」,關鍵在其致力於「更新信念」與「自我進步」的程度,而這因素比其聰明才智重要三倍!

因此,謹慎謙遜的「髮夾彎」,其實是通往成功的必須道路,這是相信變得更好是可能的「成長型思維」,是謀百姓福祉的務實主義。這種「髮夾彎」跟「說一套、做一套」,圖私人利益的投機欺騙可有天壤之別。而把後者稱之為「髮夾彎」,實在污辱了這個交通術語的科技含量。

●作者葉家興,在香港吐露港灣生活與任教的台灣客家人,出生在《冬冬的假期》電影裡的小鎮苗栗銅鑼,台大電機系學士、經濟所碩士、美國威斯康辛大學精算、風險管理與保險博士。1996年離台前在金門太武山麓服役兩年。譯有《經濟學與社會的對話》、《世代風暴》、《助人為獲利之本》、《當經濟指標統治我們》等。著有《理財與保險--迷思與反思》、《陸生元年》、《未來事件交易簿》。以上為個人言論,不代表本公司立場。
原文網址: 葉家興/髮夾彎也有兩種 | ETtoday論壇新聞 | ETtoday 新聞雲
http://www.ettoday.net/news/20160803/747521.htm#ixzz4GMDxMZjB

Wednesday, August 3, 2016

【陰仙姑說鬼話】 餓鬼出閘, 蝗蟲上桌, 蒼蠅見血, 貪婪無厭, 除了吃就是啃, 將來滾蛋留下的, 也只剩滿目瘡痍 .....

【陰仙姑說鬼話】 餓鬼出閘, 蝗蟲上桌, 蒼蠅見血, 貪婪無厭, 除了吃就是啃, 將來滾蛋留下的, 也只剩滿目瘡痍 ..... 

普度狀告鬼神 趙藤雄:大巨蛋有藏鏡人
http://udn.com/news/story/7314/1872125
林洲民生氣了 要和趙藤雄「釘孤枝」
http://udn.com/news/story/7314/1872247
冷眼集/罷不罷工都挺 蔡真的挺勞工?
http://udn.com/news/story/7314/1870470-%E5%86%B7%E7%9C%BC%E9%9B%86%EF%BC%8F%E7%BD%B7%E4%B8%8D%E7%BD%B7%E5%B7%A5%E9%83%BD%E6%8C%BA-%E8%94%A1%E7%9C%9F%E7%9A%84%E6%8C%BA%E5%8B%9E%E5%B7%A5%EF%BC%9F
攜家帶眷誰埋單?立委訪日團 「吃」相難看
http://udn.com/news/story/10148/1870447
綠委:僑胞如覺不舒服 可「補差額」
http://udn.com/news/story/10148/1870450
直言集/理直氣壯 僑宴當全家餐
http://udn.com/news/story/10148/1872180-%E7%9B%B4%E8%A8%80%E9%9B%86%EF%BC%8F%E7%90%86%E7%9B%B4%E6%B0%A3%E5%A3%AF-%E5%83%91%E5%AE%B4%E7%95%B6%E5%85%A8%E5%AE%B6%E9%A4%90
冷眼集/民代別在國外鬧笑話!
http://udn.com/news/story/10148/1870448
爭搶這些國營肥缺 最熱門職位月薪33萬元
http://udn.com/news/story/9485/1872217
江春男酒駕 綠委也扯馬總統喝多、喝茫
http://udn.com/news/story/6656/1872540-%E6%B1%9F%E6%98%A5%E7%94%B7%E9%85%92%E9%A7%95-%E7%B6%A0%E5%A7%94%E4%B9%9F%E6%89%AF%E9%A6%AC%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E5%96%9D%E5%A4%9A%E3%80%81%E5%96%9D%E8%8C%AB
聯合/弄到大家都想罷工的勞動新制
http://udn.com/news/story/7338/1869650
一手欖枝,一手鞭子
http://udn.com/news/story/7338/1869666-%E8%81%AF%E5%90%88%EF%BC%8F%E4%B8%80%E6%89%8B%E6%AC%96%E6%9E%9D%EF%BC%8C%E4%B8%80%E6%89%8B%E9%9E%AD%E5%AD%90
自滿心態難以打通南向之路
http://udn.com/news/story/7338/1872169?Idlepage
太陽花是工具 漁民是敵人?
http://udn.com/news/story/7339/1869735-%E5%A4%AA%E9%99%BD%E8%8A%B1%E6%98%AF%E5%B7%A5%E5%85%B7-%E6%BC%81%E6%B0%91%E6%98%AF%E6%95%B5%E4%BA%BA%EF%BC%9F
失去中間選民與精英支持 蔡英文回到「草莽時代」
http://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20160804001701-260401
桑品載》小英讓中間選民失望了
http://opinion.chinatimes.com/20160803006130-262105
社論》警惕民進黨新威權政體復辟
http://opinion.chinatimes.com/20160803006034-262101
【古調今彈】#4 Good, Easy Listening Oldies and Newbies

1961
  ​(​古調) 
Edvard Grieg: Peer Gynt Suite No.1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dyM2AnA96yE&list=RDdyM2AnA96yE#t=5
Edvard Grieg - Peer Gynt Suites - 1 and 2
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2gDFJWhXp8&list=RDO2gDFJWhXp8#t=16
Edvard Grieg - Solveig's Song
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bR3N1yBEGbw&list=RDdyM2AnA96yE&index=2
 ​(​今彈) 
Nero & The Gladiators - In The Hall Of The Mountain King - 1961 45rpm    
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aL-hRKqqRLU&list=RDaL-hRKqqRLU
 ​(​古調) 
Rossini - Overture "William Tell"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c7O91GDWGPU&list=RDc7O91GDWGPU#t=20
 ​(​今彈) 
Piltdown Rides Again Piltdown Men
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LixLufee14c&list=RDLixLufee14c#t=13
 ​(​古調) 
Robert Stolz - Salome (Orchestral Version)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EE4hKN8flIs&list=RDEE4hKN8flIs#t=3
Die schönsten Melodien von Robert Stolz: Sari Barabas u. a. - Salome (Romeo) 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sV7CAu1z3Vk&list=RDsV7CAu1z3Vk#t=23
 ​(​今彈) 
Pet Clark - Romeo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SX6LWek--6Q&list=RDSX6LWek--6Q#t=6
 ​(​古調) 
Muss i denn zum Städtele hinaus Friedrich Silcher, quartett waschächt
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X0QBM_DYPfM
 ​(​今彈) 
Wooden Heart 
​- ​
Elvis Presley
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05ZgyoZvhgI&list=RD05ZgyoZvhgI#t=5
1962
 ​(​古調) 
Alexander Borodin - String Quartet No. 2 in D Major - I. Allegro moderato 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJ1vgoroZVw&list=RDaJ1vgoroZVw#t=26
Alexander Borodin - String Quartet No. 2 in D Major - III. Notturno: Andante
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQ3p7caVb0g
Alexander Borodin - String Quartet No. 2
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2YAzUC6LzNk&list=RD2YAzUC6LzNk#t=16
 ​(​今彈) 
Wright / Forrest / George Shearing, 1961: Baubles, Bangles and Beads
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cH0fovJqh1Q&list=RDcH0fovJqh1Q#t=12
 ​(​古調) 
Offenbach - Orpheus in the Underworld: Infernal Galop
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hRmFAP9EvVY&list=RDhRmFAP9EvVY#t=43
 ​(​今彈) 
Peter Jay And The Jaywalkers - "Can Can '62"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94cu4z3t6So

【名曲名家】 Edvard Grieg - Solveig's Song

【名曲名家】 Edvard Grieg - Solveig's Song      

Edvard Grieg (1843-1907) was a Norwegian composer and pianist. 
He is best known for his Piano Concerto in A minor and for his incidental 
music to Henrik Ibsen's play Peer Gynt (which includes Morning Mood
 and Solveig's Song). Solveig's Song (Norwegian: Solveigs sang), is sung
 by Solveig in the fourth act of Peer Gynt.]]

(HD 720p) Solveig's Song (Edvard Grieg) - Malena Ernman
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBeavONKL7U&list=RDcBeavONKL7U#t=161
Edvard Grieg - Solveig's Song
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bR3N1yBEGbw&list=RDbR3N1yBEGbw#t=8
Solveig's Song (from Peer Gynt, Op.23) - Piano
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_mKCF3P7rg&list=RDF_mKCF3P7rg#t=56
Sissel Kyrkjebø - Solveigs Song 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OMO-E4dSuoE&list=RDOMO-E4dSuoE#t=44
BODIL ARNESEN Solveigs Song/ Edvard Grieg 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eh53v5sfCms&list=RDEh53v5sfCms#t=33
Barbara Bonney "Solveig's Sang" Antonio Pappano 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1nXoZQh71k&list=RDl1nXoZQh71k#t=3
Marita Solberg Solveig's song Edvard Grieg Peer Gynt
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8AD75_sNJM&list=RDR8AD75_sNJM#t=8
Solveig's Song - "Kanske vil der ga" (Elly Ameling)
<San Francisco Symphony, San Francisco Symphony Chorus, Edo de Waart & Elly Ameling>
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJk1ooJnxLw&list=RDjJk1ooJnxLw#t=48
Andre Rieu introduces Mirusia Louwerse - 'Solveig's Song'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JkfpKqzPFZA&list=RDJkfpKqzPFZA#t=42
Edvard Grieg's Peer Gynt, Suite No. 2, Op. 55 : Solveig's Song
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWsgceN2mjY
Edvard Grieg ~ Solveig's Song (Anna Netrebko)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvlUURuNOaw&list=RDwvlUURuNOaw#t=7
Edvard Hagerup Grieg - Solveig's Song - (Anna Netrebko) HQ + Norwegian lyrics
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2983MPE5cAI&list=RD2983MPE5cAI#t=4
 Lucia Popp: Solveig's Song (Peer Gynt - Grieg)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cD21oQiMR8&list=RD6cD21oQiMR8#t=6
E. Grieg: Solveig's Song (Willy Postma, harp)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R4gnV0_zfJg&list=RDR4gnV0_zfJg#t=44
Grieg Duet: Grieg - Solveig's Song (Piano & Oboe)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7j9EV9urEvI
Barbara Hendricks Solveig's Song Peer Gynt
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iuAxTcrFPJM&list=RDiuAxTcrFPJM#t=94
Sarah Brightman - Solveigs Song (1997)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NM5LgC0mto&list=RD_NM5LgC0mto#t=17
Edvard Grieg -Solveig's Song for Trumpet
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TI1vCLa7ZG4
(HD 720p) Solveig's Song (Grieg), Slovak Philharmonic Orchestra
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQnGrpGfTWc&list=RDvQnGrpGfTWc#t=9

Edvard Grieg - The Very Best Of ( 2 Hours Classical Music ) Hi-Fi HQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKIaSKB9jMY&list=RDaKIaSKB9jMY#t=5

Solveig's Song - Edvard Grieg - Cecilia
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DIkoMm2Q6tU&list=RDDIkoMm2Q6tU#t=5

Music & Lyrics: Edvard Grieg

The winter may wane and
the springtime may fly,
and the springtime may fly,
the summer may depart and
the year may die, and
the year may die;
to me thou wilt return,
thou art mine soon or late,
art mine soon or late,
I gave thee my promise and
faithfully can wait,
And faithfully can wait