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Saturday, March 26, 2016

Cost-Benefit Analysis and the Environment: Recent Developments

Cost-Benefit Analysis and the Environment: Recent Developments

Cost-Benefit Analysis and the Environment: Recent Developments
Environmental Valuation, CostBenefit Analysis and PolicyMaking: A Survey
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Environmental Protection- PRICING THE PRICELESS
Cost-Benefit Analysis*
FAO - Banking for the environment
FAO -  Methods for environmental cost-benefit analysis for agricultural lending
FAO - A contingent valuation model of environmental cost-benefit analysis

Cost-Benefit Analysis

Friday, March 25, 2016

World Bank - Series: Turn Down the Heat

World Bank - Series: Turn Down the Heat

World Bank - Series: Turn Down the Heat
Turn down the heat : why a 4°C warmer world must be avoided (English)
Turn down the heat : climate extremes, regional impacts, and the case for resilience - full report 
Turn Down the Heat : Confronting the New Climate Normal
Climate-Smart Development : Adding Up the Benefits of Actions that Help Build Prosperity, End Poverty and Combat Climate Change


World Bank - Pricing Carbon

World Bank - Pricing Carbon

World Bank - Pricing Carbon
73 Countries and Over 1,000 Businesses Speak Out in Support of a Price on Carbon
The FASTER principles for successful carbon pricing : an approach based 
​  ​
on initial experience (English)
What Does Carbon Pricing Success Look Like? Ask These Leaders
British Columbia’s carbon tax shift: An environmental and economic success
Cities can lead on climate change to build a more resilient future
New Study Adds Up the Benefits of Climate-Smart Development in Lives, Jobs, and GDP
China
Climate-smart development : adding up the benefits of actions that help build prosperity, end poverty and combat climate change :  
Main report
Carbon Pricing Readiness: Looking Ahead
Putting a Price on Carbon with an ETS
Putting a Price on Carbon with a Tax

World Bank - Series: Turn Down the Heat
Turn down the heat : why a 4°C warmer world must be avoided (English)
Turn down the heat : climate extremes, regional impacts, and the case for resilience - full report 
Turn Down the Heat : Confronting the New Climate Normal
Climate-Smart Development : Adding Up the Benefits of Actions that Help Build Prosperity, End Poverty and Combat Climate Change

WHAT IS CARBON PRICING?

WHAT IS CARBON PRICING?

WHAT IS CARBON PRICING?
http://goo.gl/Ina3Jt
WHY PRICE CARBON?
http://goo.gl/hZmKb3
WHO IS USING IT?
http://goo.gl/fkYk6F
Business Leadership Criteria CARBON
​ ​
PRICING 
http://tinyurl.com/h8qp2jc
Executive Guide to Carbon Pricing Leadership: A Caring for Climate Report
http://tinyurl.com/jxyr82k
IPCC,  2014: Summary  for Policymakers
​<​In:  Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change>
http://tinyurl.com/zzflcur
The bottom line on climate change 
​<​The U.S. economy faces significant risks from unabated climate change. Every year of inaction serves to broaden and deepen those risks>
http://tinyurl.com/h8jtv8t
HEAT IN THE HEARTLAND: CLIMATE CHANGE AND ECONOMIC RISK IN THE MIDWESTJanuary 2015
http://tinyurl.com/zncewuc
World Bank - Series: Turn Down the Heat
http://goo.gl/k0Yz5Y
Turn down the heat : why a 4°C warmer world must be avoided (English)
http://tinyurl.com/zaram4z
Turn down the heat : climate extremes, regional impacts, and the case for resilience - full report 
http://tinyurl.com/hxtdldg
Turn Down the Heat : Confronting the New Climate Normal
https://goo.gl/wCF4W1
http://tinyurl.com/guo9uam
Climate-Smart Development : Adding Up the Benefits of Actions that Help Build Prosperity, End Poverty and Combat Climate Change
https://goo.gl/K2EGfH
http://tinyurl.com/h46repg
Carbon Pricing Readiness: Looking Ahead
http://tinyurl.com/zx5xwou
Putting a Price on Carbon with an ETS
http://tinyurl.com/hqa3vwm
Putting a Price on Carbon with a Tax
http://tinyurl.com/h59mwj5

老闆, 來二斤“道德責任”, 拿回家喂狗!

老闆, 來二斤“道德責任”, 拿回家喂狗!   

聯合/轉型正義看不見浩鼎與台苯案?
​<​「權力世襲」及「財富世襲」「世代正義」- 3 Stooges>
http://goo.gl/oAQfeq
社論-翁啟惠的政治與道德責任
http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20160325000494-260109
需延攬具私心的社會公正人士擔綱主持。
http://goo.gl/VAvcb
翁啟惠未利益迴避?林全迴避了
http://goo.gl/1gLnO8

「有兩事物我越思考越覺得神奇,心中也越充滿敬畏,那就是
​   ​
我頭頂上的星空與我內心的道德準則。」

許英昌》翁啟惠陷浩鼎案-生技創新 勿違道德準則
http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20160325000487-260109
戴伯芬》翁啟惠陷浩鼎案-利益迴避 學商遊戲規則
http://goo.gl/E7q9dK
翁啟惠被爆女兒列浩鼎大股東 有跡可循
http://bit.ly/25o4Mca
浩鼎案 蘇嘉全:翁啟惠應說清楚
http://goo.gl/l2o2cQ
嚴控產金分離 媒金怎能脫鉤?
http://goo.gl/TXNV8C
爭議解盲?蔡政府清廉試金石
http://bit.ly/25o5dmM


Thursday, March 24, 2016

Topics | International Partnership on Mitigation and MRV (Complete)

Topics | International Partnership on Mitigation and MRV (Complete)

http://mitigationpartnership.net/major-topics

PBL (2015): Enhanced Policy Scenarios for Major Emitting Countries
<Analysis of current and planned climate policies, and selected enhanced mitigation measures>

LED Strategies : ​Step-by-Step Guidance to a Long-term
 Network for Continuous Sustainable Development 
 Cooperative - Version 5.2
Initiative to Support a MRV system for National and Sub-National Climate Change Policies and Actions under the MRV Trust Fund
Technology Needs Assessment Program
Global Carbon Monitoring System
Mitigation Momentum (2015): NAMAs and INDCs. Interactions and opportunities

Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs)
Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs)
​ - UNFCCC Portal​
INDCs - Related Documents
INDCs - Related Projects
CDKN (2015): A Guide to INDCs - Intended Nationally Determined Contributions
New Climate Institute (2016): Conditionality of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs)
New Climate Institute / GIZ (2016): Challenges and lessons learned in the preparation of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs)
New Climate Institute (2015) Preparation of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) as a catalyst for 
​  ​
national climate action
Global Support Project for the Preparation of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs)
New Climate Institute (2016): After Paris: What is next for Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs)?
C2ES (2015): Differentiation in a 2015 Climate Agreement
New Climate Institute / GIZ (2016): Challenges and lessons learned in the preparation of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs)

Global Good Practice Summary Report (GPA2.0)
<Good Practice Analysis 2.0 on INDCs, LEDS, NAMAs and MRV>
Good Practice
The Global Good Practice Analysis webinar series 2016
Other Good Practice Initiatives
INDC - Webtool
Meeting report: Global Workshop on Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs)
Mitigation Momentum (2015): NAMAs and INDCs. Interactions and opportunities
​I​
nternational Partnership on Mitigation and MRV (2014): Knowledge Product Summer School: 
​ ​
An Accounting Framework - Background and Recommendations
UNDP (2014): Report on Sources of Support for the Preparation of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs)
UNDP, WRI (2015): Designing and Preparing Intended Nationally Determined Contributions
WRI (2015): How to Strengthen the institutional architecture for capacity building to support the post-2020 climate regime (Working Paper)
WRI (2015): Interpreting INDCs: Assessing Transparency of post-2020 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Targets for 8 top-emitting economies (Working paper)
OECD (2010): Low-Emission Development Strategies (LEDS): Technical, Institutional and Policy Lessons
Climate Works/ECF (2009): Low Carbon Growth Plans. Advancing Good Practice.
CDKN(2011): Guide ‘Green growth – implications for development planning’


The World Bank
​ -​ Low Carbon Development Country Studies
ESMAP (2009): Low-Carbon Growth Country Studies: Getting Started.
All ESMAP Publications
Featured Publications
Energy Efficiency | Publications
LEDS Tool: Step-By-Step Guidance to a Long-Term Framework for Continuous Sustainable Development Cooperation
The Costs to Developing Countries of Adapting to Climate Change New Methods and Estimates
<The Global Report of the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change Study>
ESMAP - LCGSP: Low Carbon Growth Strategy Programs
ESMAP - 
Low Carbon Growth Country Studies—Getting Started Experience from Six Countries
Low Carbon Growth Country Studies—Getting Started Experience from Six Countries
ESMAP - 6 Countries Experiences
ESMAP - Transition to a Low Carbon Economy in Poland
ESMAP - 
Energy Intensive Sectors of the Indian Economy Path to Low Carbon Development
ESMAP - Best Practices for Market-Based Power Rationing Implications for South Africa
ESMAP - Low Carbon Development Options for Indonesia
Low-Carbon Development for Mexico
Low-Carbon Development for MEXICO
Brazil Low Carbon Country Case Study

ODI (2009): Policies for Low Carbon Growth
LED Strategies : ​Step-by-Step Guidance to a Long-term
 Network for Continuous Sustainable Development 
 Cooperative - Version 5.2
OECD (2010): Low-Emission Development Strategies (LEDS): Technical, Institutional and Policy Lessons
GIZ (2013): Factsheet Low-Emission Development Strategy (LEDS)
UNDP (2011): Preparing Low-Emission Climate-Resilient Development Strategies (Executive Summary)
UNEP DTU (2015): Transformational Change for Low carbon and Sustainable Development
Hirsch et al. (2015) Pioneers of Change: 21 Good Practices for Sustainable Low Carbon Development in Developing Countries
Low-Emission Development Strategies and Plans (LEDS)
LEDS Tool: Step-By-Step Guidance to a Long-Term Framework for Continuous Sustainable Development Cooperation
Climate Works/ECF (2009): Low Carbon Growth Plans. Advancing Good Practice.
Green Growth Best Practice: Synthesis of Key Findings
Green Growth Best Practice
Best Practice Report
Green Growth Best Practices Initiativ
​e​
SEI (2012): Building a Low-Carbon Future: Resource Constraints and Key Strategies to overcome them   
Green Growth in Practice: Lessons from Country Experiences
​(Full Report)​
Green Growth Best Practices (GGBP) Initiative Green Growth in Africa Workshop
Low Carbon Cities
National Energy Efficiency Plan as a Core Element for an Activity- and Evidence-Based Mitigation Strategy
WI (2011): Current Developments in Pilot Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions of Developing Countries (NAMAs)
World Bank Institute: Tool for Rapid Assessment of City Energy (TRACE)
ESMAP - Low Carbon Growth Strategy South Africa
Low Carbon Study South Africa
Low Carbon Growth in India Bottom Up Capacity Building

Measuring, Reporting and Verification (MRV)
Building MRV Standards and Capacity in Key Countries
MRV (Measurement, Reporting, Verification) - How
​ ​
To
​ ​
Set up
​ ​
 
National MRV
 ​
Systems
​ - ​
Draft 4.2
MRV Tool: How To Set up National MRV Systems
NAMA Tool: Steps for Moving a NAMA from Idea towards Implementation

ECN (2011): On developing NAMAs – discussion paper
Facilitating Implementation and Readiness for Mitigation (FIRM)
​- ​PUBLICATIONS
http://goo.gl/tJpCB8
Mitigation Momentum (2015): NAMAs and INDCs. Interactions and opportunities
​National Appropriate ​Mitigation Actions (NAMAs)
​ - ​Steps for Moving a NAMA from Idea towards Implementation - Version 9.0
http://tinyurl.com/zpa3hkg
NCI (2015): Assessing the Missed Benefits of Countries' National Contributions
National Action Plan for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions (RAN-GRK)
BAPPENAS (2013): Indonesia’s Framework for Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions
Creation of an overarching framework for NAMAs and MRV in Viet Nam
V-NAMAs – Involving Sub-National Actors into National Mitigation Strategies through Vertically Integrated NAMAs
GIZ, BAPPENAS (2012): Background study: Development of the Indonesian NAMA Framework
Cool Contributions fighting Climate Change
GIZ (2013): NAMAs in the refrigeration, air conditioning and foam sectors. A 
T​
echnical 
​H
andbook.
WI (2011): Current Developments in Pilot Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions of Developing Countries (NAMAs)
WRI (2014): Ex-Ante Clarification, Transparency, and Understanding of Intended Nationally Determined Mitigation Contributions
WRI (2009): Enhancing Today’s MRV Framework to Meet Tomorrow’s Needs: The Role of National Communications and Inventories
UBA (2013): Climate change mitigation in emerging economies: From potentials to actions
UNEP DTU Partnership (2015): Framework for Measuring Sustainable Development in NAMAs
UNEP DTU (2014): Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions: Understanding the MRV framework for developing Countries
Measurement and Performance Tracking in Developing Countries (Ethiopia, South Africa, Brazil, Colombia, India, Thailand)
Development and Implementation of the NAMA for Sustainable New Housing
NAMA Tool: Steps for Moving a NAMA from Idea towards Implementation
Reference Document on MRV in the Transport Sector
MRV Tool: How To Set up National MRV Systems
International Partnership on Mitigation and MRV (2013): Knowledge Product: Institutional Arrangements for MRV
International Partnership on Mitigation and MRV (2015): Leading on Transparency – a Coalition of MRV Leading Countries
Bringing a Range of Supported NAMAs to the Next Level


WRI (2014): Capacity Needs for Greenhouse Gas Measurement and Performance Tracking
Measurement and Performance Tracking in Developing Countries
About MAPT
Information Matters: Capacity Building for Ambitious Reporting and Facilitation of International Mutual Learning through Peer-to Peer Exchange
GIZ (2014): Stock Taking Tool
GIZ (2014): Biennial Update Report Template
GIZ (2015): Preparing for the ICA Process: Required efforts and capacities needed
OECD (2011): Frequent and Flexible: Options for Reporting Guidelines for Biennial Update Reports
GIZ (2011): Climate Results. The GIZ sourcebook for climate-specific monitoring in the context of international cooperation

Climate Impacts on Energy Systems Key Issues for Energy Sector Adaptation 
Capacity Building for Emission Inventory Methodologies and Preparation of National Communications
UNDP -  The project Capacity Building for Improving the Quality of Greenhouse Gas Inventories 
UNFCCC - Capacity-building in developing countries
CGE Training Materials for the Preparation of National Communications from non-Annex I Parties
USEPA - National GHG Inventory Capacity Building
Improving Reporting of National Communications and GHG Inventories by Non-Annex I Parties under the Climate Convention 
CAPACITY BUILDING FOR GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY IN VIETNAM

FAO - Exploring the concept of water tenure

FAO - Exploring the concept of water tenure

FAO - Exploring the concept of water tenure

Forest and Water Programme | FAO | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Forest and Water Programme | FAO | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Land & Water Day - Synthesis Report
FAO - Forest and Water Programme
http://www.fao.org/in-action/forest-and-water-programme/en/
​FAO - ​Celebrating forests and water
International Forest Da
​y​
​FAO - ​
​W​atershed Projects
How do forests contribute to our water needs?
FAO - Exploring the concept of water tenure
​Determinants of Customer Payment Behaviours in the 
 Urban W​ater Sector

Burn! Burn! (Italian: Queimada) : A Magnificent Film; Even More Its Theme Music (by Ennion Morricone)

Burn! Burn! (Italian: Queimada) : A Magnificent Film; Even More Its Theme Music (by Ennion Morricone)

​I came across this heart-wrenching movie 2007, via its theme music (Queimada : literally translated as 'Burn! Burn!', with the title "Abolisson (Italian)". 

Enjoy the film, and especially the theme music!

​The quote from the film "The freedom given is not, while the one fight with
one's life is the genuine one!"​
​james​

Burn! - 
​Brief
  
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burn!
Movies 'Queimada': Revolution In Perpetual Motion
​ (​Washington Post)

​Film​
Queimada!/Burn!(1969):Marlon Brando e Gillo Pontecorvo/LEGENDADO

​Theme music (composed by Ennio Morricone)​
Ennio Morricone - Abolisson (In Concerto - Venezia 10.11.07)

Climate Resilient Infrastructure: Preparing for a Changing Climate

UK - Climate Resilient Infrastructure: Preparing for a Changing Climate

UK - Climate Resilient Infrastructure: Preparing for a Changing Climate

'​Government Assets: Risks and Opportunities in a Changing Climate Policy Landscape'
Summary
http://goo.gl/0HyFZB
​Full Report​
http://tinyurl.com/hbzhas8
Climate expert Nicholas Stern says early action on climate change can reduce fiscal risks
http://www.ebrd.com/news/2015/climate-expert-nicholas-stern-says-early-action-on-climate-change-can-reduce-fiscal-risks.html
Sustainability Report 2014
Environmental and Social Policy (ESP)

CLIMATE CHANGE: RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR AUSTRALIAN BUSINESS
A Climate Change Adaptation Framework for South Australia

Scaling Up Climate Action through Value Chain Mobilization

Scaling Up Climate Action through Value Chain Mobilization

Scaling Up Climate Action through Value Chain Mobilization

Intelligent Assets: Unlocking the Circular Economy Potential

Intelligent Assets: Unlocking the Circular Economy Potential

Intelligent Assets: Unlocking the Circular Economy Potential

Five alternative energy myths – debunked

Five alternative energy myths – debunked

REN21
​ - ​
Renewables Global Futures Report (GFR) 
Supplementary Materials : Glossary, Bibliography, and Endnotes 
SCENARIO PROFILES REPORT

​NREL - ​
Renewable Electricity Futures Report

Five alternative energy myths – debunked 
​ - ​
Using new energy sources naturally raises questions about how they work and why they are better options than fossil fuels
5 Wind Power Myths Debunked Mar 15, 2016
Wind Energy and the Power System: An Interactive FAQ
Reinventing Fire
How much does wind energy cost? Debunking the myths
Wind power myths debunked
Fourteen wind energy myths debunked
Green energy generates big costs for little gain
Assessing“Gas Transition” pathways to low carbon electricity
How does the Renewable Energy Target affect your power bills?
Australian Government : RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGET REVIEW - DECEMBER 2014
​NREL - ​
Renewable Electricity Futures Report

Divest from Fossil Fuels? You Must be Joking !!

Divest from Fossil Fuels? You Must be Joking !!

​​
We can't divest from fossil fuels unless you tell us, says UK's largest pension assets manager
What If We Never Run Out of Oil? New technology and a little-known energy source suggest that fossil fuels may not be finite. This would be a miracle—and a nightmare
No, Really: We're Going to Keep Burning Oil—and Lots of It No matter how much we wish it were otherwise, the economics favor burning fossil fuels.
It Doesn't Matter If We Never Run Out of Oil: We Won't Want to Burn It Anymore 
Like whale oil in the 1860s, oil today has become uncompetitive -- even at low prices -- and that will only become truer with time.
What Unconventional Fossil Fuels Change About Our Energy Picture, and What They Don't 
​ - ​
A deep dive into the nature and complications of alt fuels like fracked natural gas, methane hydrate, and tar sands oil
Yes, Unconventional Fossil Fuels Are That Big of a Deal 
​ - ​
And the evidence is solid that they are well on their way to changing the world's energy choices.
What Has the Pursuit of Fossil Fuels Cost Us? And Who Has Had to Pay? 
​ - ​
Whether or not we can "run out of oil," we have to be asking bigger questions about the costs of our 
​  ​
energy systems.
Green Lifestyle Choices Don't Change the Systems That Make Fossil Fuels Attractive 
​ - ​
Which is why we need a structural solution, like a carbon tax.
Are Methane Hydrates Really Going to Change Geopolitics? 
​ - ​
Renewables are on a much more solid path to affordability than the exotic fuel
We Don't Need Exotic Fuels to Cook the Earth, Coal Will Do 
​ - ​
We've long known that we have more than enough fossil fuels to create unimaginable levels of global warming.

Changing Climate: The Fossil Fuel Debate

 Changing Climate: The Fossil Fuel Debate 

A Changing Climate: The Fossil Fuel Debate
http://tinyurl.com/hvz629q
Fossil Fuel Debate
MIT hosts debate on pros and cons of fossil-fuel divestment
M.I.T. Debates Whether to Drop Fossil-Fuel Investments
Harvard's Federalist Society Hosts Fossil Fuel Debate

Is Nuclear Power the Way Forward?
New Regulations for Carbon Offsetters

張系國/誰來晚餐? |

張系國∕誰來晚餐﹖
http://udn.com/news/story/7048/1583356

張系國∕誰來晚餐﹖
張系國/聯合報
將來的居家照顧機器人一切工作全包了,既照顧老人家也照顧毛孩子。老人家、毛孩子和機器人,就是未來快樂家庭的三個主要成員……

谷歌開發的人工智慧系統下圍棋竟然勝過南韓圍棋高手李世石,為人工智慧的發展樹立新的里程碑,掀起報章雜誌一波波熱烈討論。當然這不是第一次人工智慧專家設計出懂得下棋的電腦。過去人工智慧的研發重點之一是西洋棋,例如IBM的華生研究中心所設計的「深藍」人工智慧系統,下西洋棋不輸最高段的棋士。但是圍棋遠比西洋棋更加複雜,不過幾年前連人工智慧專家都認為電腦不可能下圍棋贏過人腦,現在電腦竟然成功了,不能不令人驚嘆人工智慧進步神速。
另外一點令人驚奇的,是人工智慧系統的研發已經不再是學術界或老牌電腦公司的專利。例如下西洋棋的電腦過去是IBM的禁臠,現在谷歌竟然取代了IBM,可說長江後浪推前浪,也可說一葉知秋。從此天下大亂群雄並起,誰知今後人工智慧技術會掌握在哪個國家、哪家公司的手裡?多半是各顯神通的局面。
其實很久以來,電腦專家就一直希望能夠設計出和人類同樣有智慧的電腦。可是我們如何證明電腦和人腦同樣有智慧?更進一步,我們如何證明電腦也能夠思考?許多人想出許多辦法,最後「關千古哲人之口」的是英國的數學家涂林所提出的如下測驗:
「把電腦和活人都置於幕幔的後面,讓我們無法就外形分辨何者是人何者是電腦,然後對兩者提出各種問題。如果我們竟無法從兩者的回答分辨何者是人何者是電腦,那麼我們就不得不承認電腦和人腦同樣有智慧。」
在1950年涂林提出這個測驗,主要是為了回答一個哲學上的問題:「除了人類之外,機器人能夠思考嗎?」過去的哲學家都是用玄想的方式回答這個機器人能否思考的存在問題,甚至扯到神性和人性,這就永遠吵不完。涂林卻主張排除這些玄想,把哲學上的存在問題換成可以驗證的測驗,這就是有名的涂林測驗。
涂林測驗影響深遠。許多人工智慧專家根據涂林測驗來設計各種各樣的人工智慧系統,包括具有常識能夠像一般人一樣與人對談的問答系統,也包括具有感情能夠像一般人一樣表達喜怒哀樂的感知系統。這些研究對人工智慧的發展都有很大的貢獻。
電腦下棋系統也是實踐涂林測驗的一種方式。它可以說是把涂林測驗推到極致,不僅電腦能夠像人類一樣思考推理,而且比人類更強,甚至可以擊敗人類!所以每次電腦下棋擊敗人腦都會引起普遍注意,甚至有人會在報章雜誌網站推特大聲疾呼:「如果不悔改,人類滅亡就在眼前!」
電腦下棋系統的進步,對人工智慧當然是有貢獻的。正如外電新聞所指出:「圍棋比西洋棋更複雜,一場棋賽可能走的招不可勝數,確實也只有能透過觀察和練習而自我學習的電腦,才能精通此道。而這些觀察和練習的能力,依然是電腦科學中相當新穎的領域。開發這套系統的人工智慧專家哈薩比斯以及谷歌的人工智慧團隊,該受到讚揚與肯定。」
類似谷歌的電腦下棋系統所運用的電腦推理技術,可以說是深層推理。所以歷代電腦下棋系統的主要貢獻,應該說是深層推理技術的發展,這當然對人工智慧非常重要。不過就眼前最重要的應用領域而言,機器人除了深層推理的能力外,更應該具備日常會話的能力和關懷對方的同情心和同理心。
提出涂林測驗的英國數學家涂林到底不脫學者本色,其實他相當輕視身體只重視頭腦,所以他提出的涂林測驗是為了沒有身體躲在幕後的電腦而設計。新一代的機器人和電腦最大的不同是它具有「身體」,所以不僅可以行動,而且能夠替人類服務。新一代的機器人更有許多遙感裝置,足以取代人的五官有餘。
機器人最有價值的應用之一就是老人居家照顧。全世界所有開發國家以及大多數發展中國家都不斷老化,越開發的國家人口老化的情況越嚴重!這是一個巨大的社會問題,也嚴重影響到經濟發展。這幾年來,以老年人為主角的電影和文學作品越來越多,反映這問題已經嚴重到了無法忽視的地步。一個失智老人可以拖垮一家人,導致許多悲劇。因為無法長期照顧失智老人的自殺和他殺案例也越來越多。例如轟動一時的法國電影《愛.慕》(2012)所描述的老人殺死失智妻子後自殺,或是台灣最近(2014)發生的殺人事件,老人用長釘釘入失智妻子的頭顱然後投案,都是這樣的悲劇。
因為電腦的製造成本越來越低,造價合理的機器人可以成為老人的居家照顧者。這樣的機器人不必像下棋電腦一樣能夠做深層推理,但是必須具備日常會話的能力和關懷對方的能力,因為老年人不僅時時需要照顧,更需要關懷和同情。將來的居家照顧機器人可以具備這些能力。當然有人會認為機器人不是真人。但是如果機器人會說話有同情心,在沒有親人照顧的情況下,不少老人恐怕很容易接受機器人的長期照顧,甚至從此離不開機器人!
不希望只有機器人在旁邊照顧的老人還有個辦法,可以養個「毛孩子」。的確,身邊有個寵物不管是狗還是貓,都可以讓老人活得更快樂更充實。您也許覺得奇怪,老人連自己都照顧不了,怎麼可能再養狗養貓?其實居家照顧機器人一樣可以照顧寵物,都是同樣的設計原理,不過換個照顧對象而已。所以將來的居家照顧機器人一切工作全包了,既照顧老人家也照顧毛孩子。老人家、毛孩子和機器人,就是未來快樂家庭的三個主要成員。不管年紀多老,身邊有沒有親人,老人都可以活得不再寂寞。
換個角度看,居家照顧機器人可能比真人照顧更加體貼入微,也更加安全。從安全的角度看,老年人的一個毛病是比較囉唆、脾氣比較壞。因此送到老年照顧中心的老人,往往被服務員虐待甚至殺害。這不一定是因為服務員都是虐待狂或者居心不良,也可能是不堪老人的抱怨而出此下策。居家照顧機器人既然是機器人,只要電腦程式設計得法,就不會有這樣的情緒問題。有遠見的科幻大師艾西莫夫老早就提出機器人三原則:「不可主動殺人,不可見死不救,不可間接殺人。」就是為了避免這些問題。可以預測,設計得宜價格合理的居家照顧機器人不僅合乎人道,並且會帶來巨大商機。
至於再往下走呢?那就難講了。大陸因為過去執行一胎化政策導致許多女嬰被殺,所以男女比例嚴重失衡。試問這些娶不到老婆的男人,如果在機器人的懷抱裡找尋到慰藉,誰說不宜?好多年前我就寫科幻小說《金縷衣》討論這問題。其他國家也可能有很多男女因為種種理由寧可找尋機器人為伴侶。當機器人獲得某種程度的「人」權後,各國都會放寬婚姻立法,就像現在對待同性婚姻一樣。
有一部美國老電影《誰來晚餐?》(1967),由史本塞屈賽、凱瑟琳赫本和薛尼鮑迪領銜主演。女兒帶未婚夫回家晚餐,兩老期待不已,想不到出現的女兒男友竟然是個黑人!這部電影反映上世紀六○年代的美國社會問題,現在已經不再是問題。十年之後也就是這世紀的三○年代,另一類「誰來晚餐?」的問題會再度出現,不同的是來晚餐的究竟是誰?不用我說,恐怕您也猜得出來。