如何避免淪陷入一言堂 (GroupThink) 的詛咒

如何避免淪陷入一言堂 (GroupThink) 的詛咒

眾所週知​, 這​ '​​​團體迷思​' (GroupThink)幾乎存在於任何團體​, 絕對是創意的有形
無形殺手​​; 有見識的領袖人物​, 也很清楚這種​文化​, 會​讓企業體僵直
老化​, 而失去競爭力​, 但因循苟且​, ​​​​​抱殘守缺​, ​那些首領的早就
習慣在醬缸中那股腐負味了​;

斷交真正警訊：蔡政府一言堂
http://opinion.chinatimes.com/20180502003351-262101

【來長點學問】看僵屍電影，會讓你長智慧；不信？來瞧瞧！

​昨夜偶看到一部僵屍電影​, 劇情​是最近好萊嗚​流行的Zombie僵屍​瘟疫​,
情節普通​, 但剪接尚不錯​, 有興趣​可去看看​ (片長二小時​,​若​不​嫌長​;
​否則可到本文最後附件​ D),​​​選看電影​的精釆​片段​)​​​​​​​​​​​

Watch ​'​World War Z​'​ free Online
http://goo.gl/XkYnuO
http://goo.gl/rShx88

​電影中, 有一情節​, 談及以色列遠在瘟疫剛在一些偏遠地
出現時, 其情報安全單位,不理會其他國家忽視看輕的輕忽
態度, 獨排眾議, 立即下決定築高牆, 等到瘟疫傳到以色列時,
就已經準備充份; 影片中, 這情報單位負責人, 回答何以只有
他們一國作出不同於其他國家的決定呢? 他答道, 以色列自
1948 建國後, 歷經三次戰爭 (https://goo.gl/rsDiQP),
雖然事前有許多跡象, 但情報單位決策會議, 全都陷入
GroupThink 團體迷思, 作了錯誤的決策, 未召集動員, 始料未及,
出乎意料, 阿拉伯大軍侵入, 措手不及, 國防軍主力被迫退至海邊,
幾乎亡國滅種; 這種類似錯誤, 連續發生三次, 於是乎,情報首長
找到病灶, 開出葯方, 就訂下了個決策準則, 叫作 :

’​10th man doctrine​’​

又稱​ ​​"Devil's Advocate" : ​意思為​"whenever 9 people looking
at the same information come to​ ​the same conclusion, it's the
10th's duty to disagree and actively look for evidence​ ​to the
contrary."​ ; 也就是一定要安排一個​ '​​​獨排眾議​' 的角色​​​;​

綱路上在討論, 這情節究竟是電影虛構​, 還是真有其事​, 花了
番功夫​, 實際去查​, 還真的有​, 在以色列情報單位​ Mossad
中​, ​就真有這個祕密小組​​​​​​;

​同​樣涵意​, 以往電影有類似的角色; 如 "the odd man"​rule​ ​怪咖​'​
("The Andromeda Strain"), and "the two man" rule ​(打對臺​) ​​for using
nuclear weapons ("The Sum of All Fears", "The Dead Zone")
(which may actually be a real procedure​ 也可能真有​其人​其事​)
有興趣者​, 可先讀下列這些連結​,
若有意詳細了解​這種集體決定的謬誤實例​, 可再往下讀​A) & B)​英美兩國為
發動​​​​​​​伊拉克戰爭​, 以假情報來掩飾實情​, 籍會議集體決定​為藉口托詞
​的​劣蹟​​, 而英國政府情報單位​甚至暗殺了一位政府​科學家​; 經過長達
七年調查​​​, BBC今日報導​, 英國政府專門設立一​網頁​, 公開公布這份
調查報告​​​;

How to innovate: use the 10th man idea from World War Z
http://goo.gl/Feu2h
Lessons from Israel’s Intelligence reforms
https://brook.gs/2jCkhMb
President of the State of Israel Visits the IDF Intelligence Directorate
http://goo.gl/XHulbJ
New In the IAF: Organic Flight Teams
http://goo.gl/w5YsLv
Plan More Effectively with the "Tenth Man Rule"
http://lifehacker.com/plan-more-effectively-with-the-tenth-…
The Tenth Man Strategy, Critical Thinking, and Zombies
http://goo.gl/w5voYL
What World War Z Can Teach You About Critical Thinking - Forbes
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/
Adopt the 10th Man Rule to Nurture Opposing Views
https://goo.gl/pXGThu
What World War Z Can Teach You About Critical Thinking
http://goo.gl/Uv20bB
The Argumentative Theory A Conversation with Hugo Mercier
https://goo.gl/OEz4c6

Groupthink 團體迷思
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groupthink
What is Groupthink?
http://goo.gl/zWJGm
Examples of Groupthink
http://goo.gl/9Hlz4L
Eight Main Symptoms of Group Think
https://bit.ly/2wkxWRf
https://bit.ly/2rrY9HU
http://awealthofcommonsense.com/20…/…/8-symptoms-groupthink/
https://bit.ly/2HVclV4
https://bit.ly/1oAyAcV
https://www.jaluch.co.uk/group-think/

A)
Butler Review​ (​註​: ​這份報告完際在為 Tony Blair 開脫​)​
https://goo.gl/ngJzMy
Review of Intelligenceon​ ​Weapons of Mass Destruction
Report of a Committee​ ​of​ ​Privy Counsellors​ ​Chairman:The Rt Hon The Lord Butler
After the Butler Report: time to take on the group think in Washington and London
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butler_Review
https://bit.ly/2HX20Ik
Unknown Knowns: A Groupthink Model on the U.S. Decision to go to War In Iraq
http://goo.gl/Dsg13d
Justifying the Iraq War and WMDs
http://goo.gl/pfXRD5
Tony Blair’s Eternal Shame: The Report
http://www.nybooks.com/…/tony-blairs-eternal-shame-chilcot…/
B)
Whitehall and the Iraq War:the UK’s Four Intelligence Enquiries
http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/2188/
**The Quardian - Dr David Kelly: 10 years on, death of scientist remains unresolved for some
http://www.theguardian.com/…/…/david-kelly-death-10-years-on
**Why I know weapons expert Dr David Kelly was murdered, by the MP who spent a year investigating his death
http://goo.gl/34yYc4
​**​Mysterious Death of Dr. David Kelly (DoD's weapons expert)​ (暗殺事件​)​​
https://goo.gl/Csf89
Iraq war: the greatest intelligence failure in living memory - Telegraph
http://goo.gl/jYy9j
​**BBC : ​Iraq Inquiry: Chilcot says invasion 'not last resort'​ (​After 7 Years)​
http://goo.gl/aRg5E2
​**​Iraq Inquiry - Portal
http://www.iraqinquiry.org.uk/

C)
10th man theory, the God of devils advocate
https://goo.gl/jFLE7j
WorldWar Z-Jerusalem Scene Part 1(HD)
https://goo.gl/hWkrn1
WorldWar Z-Jerusalem Scene Part 2(HD)
https://goo.gl/4l36Qz
WorldWar Z-Plane Scene(HD)
https://goo.gl/4lv9nI
World War Z – Philadelphia (full scene)
https://goo.gl/3uCOuW
World War Z Funny Zombie
https://goo.gl/CUg5NE
Jerusalem War Z Best of
https://goo.gl/GHL1S6

D)
Forum
Do the Israelis really have a 10th man doctrine?
https://goo.gl/q6vgI6
Is the 10th man rule purely fictional, or is it based in fact?
http://goo.gl/iNIhnb

中時社論》斷交真正警訊：蔡政府一言堂

多明尼加無預警斷絕和我國長達77年的邦交，轉而承認大陸，我邦交國降到新低的19國。多明尼加與我國斷交，是金錢與外交利益的選擇，台灣如今完全不是大陸銀彈與一帶一路大商機的對手。但比支票簿太輕薄更要命的問題，.....

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